RTRS - South American soybean crop delay would raise prices-Oil World
Posted by Labels: Trader's highlightHAMBURG, Jan 29 (Reuters) - Soybean harvest delays or transport problems in South America may shift business back to the United States in the next one to three months, pushing up U.S. soybean futures, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said.
The global soybean market is counting on huge South American crops in early 2013 to relieve tight world supplies after a drought in the United States in 2012, and there is intense concern about any delays or weather damage to harvests in Brazil and Argentina.
“If insufficient South American exports in February and March shift back some business to U.S. origin, it could have an explosive impact on U.S. soybean futures in the May contract,” Oil World said on Tuesday.
“Although the South American crops are record high - at least on paper - it is questionable whether sufficient quantities can be physically moved in time, considering the insufficient facilities for inland transportation and at the ports,” Oil World said.
Brazil is forecast to overtake the United States as the number one exporter and producer of soybeans this season, with a 30 percent increase in its soybean crop, but the country has added no new capacity to its ports.
“The current harvest delays in Brazil are further complicating the situation,” the firm said.
Brazilian farmers have already started harvesting this year’s soybean crop, which is set to reach a record 85 million tonnes.
But rain has delayed some early Brazilian harvesting, and export supplies arriving at Brazilian ports are smaller than expected, leading to an increasing number of ships waiting to load, Oil World said.
Argentine farmers have sold only an estimated 10 percent of their expected 2013 crop so far, less than half of they sold in early 2012, because of fears about exchange rate movements, it said.
“The transition from U.S. to South American (export) supplies could turn out more difficult than expected,” Oil World said.
Oil World warned on Monday that U.S. soybean supplies will be tight in early 2013 after its poor crop and large export sales.
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