HAMBURG, Nov 27 (Reuters) - Soybean prices are too low and do not reflect the possible risk to tight global supplies if the critical South American soybean harvest in early 2013 suffers weather damage, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
“In our opinion the prices of soybeans and other oilseeds are currently undervalued considering the production risks in South America and the unusually small world stocks available at the beginning of 2013,” Oil World said.
“Soybean stocks will be depleted to a multi-year low of 49 million tonnes at the beginning of 2013 when the South American crop starts moving. They are down 21 million tonnes from a year ago and leave hardly any cushion for crop damage.”
Soybean prices hit record highs in September as drought ravaged the U.S. crop, but fell back to pre-drought levels in mid-November as the U.S. harvest turned out larger than expected and looming big South American crops may relieve world supplies in early 2013.
Unfavourable sowing weather in key exporters Argentina and Brazil led Oil World to cut its forecasts of 2013 soybean harvests in both countries but a large increase is still expected on the year. (Full Story)
Low stocks and short U.S, supplies will mean the world will urgently need big South American soybean exports in early 2013, it said.
“At the moment the market is optimistic in its estimates of soybean yields and production in South America,” Oil World said. “But the biggest problems are to be seen in the possibly too low pace of soybean disposals caused by the bottlenecks in the domestic transport and export facilities in Brazil and Argentina.”
As the United States is forecast to export over 80 percent of its available soybean export supplies by February 2013 and with soybean stocks sharply reduced, the monthly volumes to be shipped out of South America will have to be record volumes from March 2013, it said.
Brazil’s soybean stocks on Jan. 1, 2013, as its new harvest starts will have fallen to 1.0 million tonnes from 5.4 million tonnes in January 2012, Oil World estimates.
Argentina’s soybean stocks on Mar. 1, 2013, as its later harvest approaches will fall 2.3 million tonnes from 3.6 million tonnes a year previously, it forecast.
0 comments:
Posting Komentar