Brazil's soya crop view wilts but corn jumps
Posted by Labels: Brazil, Corn, Crop Loss, South America, soybean
Brazil's government pared back its forecast for soya production on Thursday as drought over the southern grain belt took its toll on yields, but it raised the estimate for corn, expecting winter planting to jump in the coming weeks.
The fifth forecast of the 2011/2012 grain crop by the Agriculture Ministry's supply agency Conab comes after drought over southern Brazil and Argentina raised fears of a sharp drop in output.
Combined, the two nations produce more soyabeans - an important global source of protein and vegetable oils- than the United States, the largest single producer.
Conab said the soya crop would fall to 69.23 million tonnes from the 71.75 million tonnes it estimated in January, after taking into account the effects of the drought that has hurt yields in Brazil's southern grain belt.
The estimate is on the low side when compared with recent forecasts from independent analysts.
Grain consultancy Agroconsult lowered its estimate to 71 million tonnes on Wednesday; analysts at Celeres lowered its estimate to 72 million tonnes on Monday; and the grain crushing industry association Abiove lowered its outlook to 71.9 million tonnes last week.
The US Department of Agriculture also lowered its estimate of Brazil's crop on Thursday, to 72 million tonnes from 74 million last month.
But Conab had been consistently below the overall market view since the start of the forecasting season around September last year, expecting drier weather conditions from La Nina to pull down yields from the records reached in the previous crop.
Weather forecasters expect La Nina to dissipate in the coming months but lingering dry weather will still affect South American crops.
Despite the damage that drought did to Brazil's summer corn crop in the south, which shares the same growing areas as soya, Conab said Brazil's total corn crop would rise to 60.83 million tonnes due to an expected surge in winter corn crop planting.
The parched summer crop was slashed to 35 million tonnes from 37.9 million forecast in January, but winter corn is expected to reach 25.79 million tonnes, up from January's forecast of 21.29 million tonnes.
This was the first forecast of the winter crop based on field work.
Brazil has moved up the ranking of world corn exporters to the No 3 slot, shipping around 10 million tonnes a year.
The country's cotton lint crop is seen up slightly at 2 million tonnes from 1.99 million tonnes last month.
Most of the country's cotton is grown in the center-west where rain has been more regular than in the southern grain belt this year.
Brazil's total grain output is seen sliding to 157 million tonnes, down from 158.4 million tonnes in January and off the record 162.8 million tonnes harvested last year, Conab said.
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