HAMBURG, July 8 (Reuters) - The surge in soy oil prices to 35-year highs in the past days has created a huge price difference against palm oil, which cannot be sustained, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
Palm oil has been quoted as much as $400 a tonne below soy oil in global markets in the past week against only $70 to $80 a tonne a year ago, it said.
"This price discrepancy is unsustainable as it will cause a massive shift of demand from soy to palm oil," it said.
"Still, soy oil will stay at a significant premium over palm oil owing to its much lower production growth."
Oil World said soy oil prices had been largely driven upward by speculative buying on U.S. futures markets and concern over whether U.S. old and new crop soybean supplies will be adequate.
"In contrast, palm oil prices were mostly influenced by the slowdown of Malaysian palm oil exports in June, which implies an accumulation of record stocks in Malaysian tanks," it said.
There were some bullish arguments for a rise in the U.S. soy oil prices "but the magnitude of the price rally was difficult to understand, to say the least," it said.
Soy oil price rises in recent days were probably overdone and a downward correction was likely, it added.
0 comments:
Posting Komentar