RTRS - Oil World raises forecast of 2012 and 2013 global palm oil output
Posted by Labels: Trader's highlightHAMBURG, Feb 19 (Reuters) - Global palm oil production is likely to be higher than expected in the 2012/13 season, but global stocks may still fall because of high consumption, Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday.
“World production of palm oil exceeded expectations so far this season, making us raise our production estimate to a new high of 55.3 million tonnes in Oct. 2012/Sept. 2013, 0.3 million tonnes above our previous estimate and 3.4 million tonnes above last season,” Oil World said.
Output in top producer Indonesia in 2012/13 will reach 27.4 million tonnes, up 1.5 million tonnes on the season, Oil World estimates.
Malaysian 2012/13 palm oil output will rise to 19.7 million tonnes, also up 1.5 million tonnes on the previous season, it said.
Global palm oil supplies will remain ample at least in Jan./June 2013 also partly owing to record world stocks in January of 10.5 million tonnes, up by 1.8 million tonnes on January 2012, it said. Stocks are important for global palm oil price development.
Low palm oil prices compared to rival soyoil means global palm oil consumption may exceed production by about 1.4 to 1.5 million tonnes in Jan./Mar. 2013, reducing palm oil stocks despite the higher-than-expected production, Oil World said.
World palm oil stocks may fall to around 9.0 million tonnes in end March 2013, it said.
“This is likely to result in a narrowing of the still unusually large price discount of palm oil relative to soyoil,” it said.
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