SAO PAULO, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Brazil will produce a record 82.7 million tonnes of soybeans this season due to a hefty expansion in planted area, the government said on Wednesday, raising its forecast by 0.12 percent from a December estimate.
Brazil has been the world's No. 2 soybean grower in recent years but could surpass the United States in production of the oilseed this season with an expected rebound from a disappointing 66.4 million tonne crop in 2011/12.
With the harvest just beginning in some areas of the country, Brazil's area planted with soy will likely increase by 9.2 percent from last year to 27.34 million hectares, slightly above the 27.24 million hectares estimated in December by Conab, the government's food supply agency.
"An increase in area cultivated is observed in all producing areas of the country, especially in Mato Grosso," Conab said, referring to Brazil's top producing state in its fourth official forecast report on the crop.
But the agency lowered its forecast for soy field productivity by 0.33 percent from December to 3.02 tonnes per hectare, as producers in the region reported irregular yields from the state where some 1 percent of the crop has been harvested.
"We have reports of producers collecting 34 bags per hectare and reports of harvests yielding 54 bags per hectare," said Nery Ribas, technical director of the Association of Soy Producers of Mato Grosso.
Mato Grosso received below-average rainfall in October and December, though rains were ample in the key month of November. The agriculture ministry said now that seeds have germinated, rains actually need to stop in Mato Grosso to allow harvesting and prevent disease and fungi taking hold.
"There's neither an excess nor a shortage of rain," in Mato Grosso and the Center West, Neri Geller, secretary for agricultural policy at the agriculture ministry, said at a news conference.
Unlike last season, No. 2 and No. 3 producing states Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, which start harvesting later than Mato Grosso, have also received sufficient rains. Frontier farms in the Northeast have received almost no rainfall in recent months.
Conab also raised its corn forecast by 0.42 percent from December to 72.2 million tonnes. That would be just slightly below last season's record 73 million tonne corn crop.
The corn forecast is above the U.S. Agriculture Department forecast of 70 million tonnes. Conab's soybean forecast is also above the USDA's expected 81 million tonnes.
Conab representatives justified their strong corn forecast by saying farmers are sacrificing area planted with wheat in order to plant corn, although the area planted with corn is not expected to increase as much as that of soy.
U.S.-based crop forecaster Lanworth on Wednesday raised its estimate for Brazil's corn crop to 76 million tonnes from 73.9 million tonnes previously due to larger-than-expected planted area.
Wheat production, which was hurt by heavy rains during the harvest period, was forecast to fall to 4.3 million tonnes. That is down from Conab's forecast for 4.46 million tonnes from December and 24.6 percent off last year's crop.
Millers have said Brazil, one of the world's largest wheat importers, will have to buy more wheat from the Northern Hemisphere this year due to a weak crop from neighboring Argentina and its own disappointing harvest.
Brazil has already exported more corn than ever before from the 2011/12 crop, an estimated 21.5 million tonnes according to Conab. That is more than Argentina, usually the world's No. 2 exporter, will sell abroad from its 2011/12 crop, according to some private estimates.
Brazilian corn exports will likely fall to 15 million tonnes from the 2012/13 crop, however, Conab said. Soybean exports will increase to 36.41 million tonnes, up from 32.47 million tonnes shipped from the last crop and helping fill low global stocks.
Brazil, an agricultural powerhouse that is poised to take on a larger share of the world's food production, will likely produce a cotton lint crop of 1.4 million tonnes, down from 1.9 million tonnes last year , Conab said.
Conab's report initially pushed Chicago soybean and corn future prices down, with traders betting bumper crops from South America would reduce demand for U.S. supplies.
March corn later rose 0.25 percent while March soybeans weakened 0.05 percent.
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