RTRS - Oil World cuts Argentine and Brazilian soybean crop forecasts
Posted by Labels: Trader's highlightHAMBURG, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Hamburg-based oilseeds analysts Oil World said on Tuesday it has cut its forecasts of 2013 soybean harvests in Argentina and Brazil by a combined 3 million tonnes because of unfavourable weather disrupting sowings in both countries.
Oil World now forecasts Argentina will harvest 54.0 million tonnes of soybeans in early 2013, down from 56.0 million tonnes it forecast in October but still up from 40.5 million tonnes Argentina harvested in early 2012.
Oil World forecasts Brazil will harvest 81.0 million tonnes of soybeans in early 2013, down from 82.0 million tonnes forecast in October but also still up from 66.8 million tonnes Brazil harvested in early 2012.
Soybean prices hit record highs in September as drought ravaged the U.S. crop, but slumped to five-month lows on Friday as the U.S. harvest turned out larger than expected and big South American output may relieve world supplies in early 2013.
But some parts of Brazil are too dry to enable soybean sowings while some Argentine plantings have been disrupted by repeated rain, Oil World said.
“So far the market has shown little response to the significant planting delays in Argentina, apparently trusting in the ability of Argentine farmers to accomplish plantings and produce a large crop even under detrimental conditions," it said.
Oil World stressed that global soybean stocks are declining and The United States can satisfy a somewhat larger share of global soybean demand than anticipated two months ago because its crop is larger than feared, Oil World said.
“However, the recent pace of U.S. soybean exports and crushings also exceeded expectations and will result in a severe depletion of U.S. soybean stocks by early 2013,” it said. “It may thus be a risky policy to bet on strong price pressure from large South American crops already today.”
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