Prices for young cattle will stay strong, but all other cattle prices should fall in 2012-13, according to ABARES.
ABARES says the saleyard price is likely to move from 330 cents a kilogram in 2011-12 to 325 c/kg in 2012-13.
It says more cattle will be slaughtered and exports of expensive cuts of beef will decline. ABARES predicts it will be overtaken by a greater demand for low value cuts in international markets.
The export value of livestock and livestock products is forecast to increase by 3.6 per cent in 2012-13 to $15.3 billion.
Beef and veal exports are expected to rise just 1 per cent next financial year to $4.5 billion, with world prices tipped to fall by 2 per cent.
Main overseas markets
Australia's heavily dependent on three major markets to take nearly two thirds of the high quality beef; Japan, the US and South Korea.
ABARES says Japan's beef consumption has stagnated and cheaper US beef is replacing Australian product. Australia's exports to Japan are forecast to fall by four per cent in 2011-12 and two per cent in 2012-13.
In the US, there is increased competition from Canada, Mexico and Brazil, where freight costs are cheaper. Despite this, exports to the US should rise by 6 per cent a year, for the next two years.
Korea continues to be a strong market for Australia as demand grows by 5 per cent this year and two per cent in 2012-13. But other suppliers, like the US and Canada are making inroads into this lucrative market.
The important emerging markets
Demand in South East Asia, although not Indonesia, is growing as incomes rise. Beef exports to these markets are tipped to take a third of Australia's beef products by 2016-17, but it's largely for cheaper cuts and a lower unit value than prime cuts.
Dwindling live exports
Live cattle exports overall are expected to fall a substantial 31 per cent in 2011-12 to 500,000 head in total.
Indonesia's restrictions on cattle imports will continue to push light steer and heifer prices down in northern Australia in 2012-13. If Indonesia holds to its quota, then Australia's exports to those ports will fall by a third to 330,000 head, this financial year.
Alternative markets like Turkey, Malaysia and the Philippines are increasingly looking to other suppliers for live cattle.
Australia's cattle herd to reach record numbers
The number of beef cattle is projected to increase to 29.1 million 2013-14, which would be the largest herd since the mid 80's. ABARES predicts that number would push saleyard prices down over the medium term.
0 comments:
Posting Komentar