Cargill is expected to be a big receiver of up to 1 million tonnes of raw sugar at expiry on Wednesday of the ICE spot contract, based on the current value of the front-month spread.
Brokers and dealers said if the front-month premium SB-1=R remains around the present level of 95 points (0.95 cent), the delivered tonnage against the New York exchange would likely stand at the upper end of a 500,000-1 million tonne range.
As of Monday, open interest stood at 40,537 lots, or just over 2 million tonnes.
Jonathan Kingsman, managing director of consultancy Kingsman SA, said he expected Cargill to be sole receiver of between 600,000 tonnes and 1 million tonnes of sugar from a mix of deliverers.
Cargill were unavailable for immediate comment on market talk that they were likely to be the sole receiver on Wednesday.
A senior London-based sugar futures broker said he saw potential delivery of between 600,000 tonnes and 1 million tonnes, depending on spread activity, and that Brazilian sugars would be included in the delivery.
"We would agree that there is going to be a substantial delivery tonnage.
"At present spread values, it could be at the top end of the 500,000 tonne to 1 million tonne range, though receivers may choose to take some of the tonnage through commercial contracts rather than via the exchange."
Cargill has been the major receiver of sizeable deliveries in New York for years.
The exception was last October, when trade sources said they were not the major receiver for the first time in 17 years and the sugar was taken by rival trade house Louis Dreyfus.
Raw sugar deliveries stood at a 5-year low of 20,168 tonnes at expiry of the October contract in 2011.
The biggest raw sugar delivery in 2011 was the March delivery at 965,000 tonnes.
The July raw sugar contract expired in 2009 with 26,783 lots delivered to the tape, or a total of 1.36 million tonnes.
Kingsman said he expected the delivery to include some 300,000 tonnes from the main growing regions, the centre-south and north-east, of top producer Brazil, 150,000 tonnes from Central America and 25,000-50,000 tonnes from the Philippines.
The Philippines, a major producer in the 1970s, started delivering sugar against the ICE expiry again in 2011.
A big question market was how much Thai sugars would feature.
"Thai raws will be the sugars that the main receiver is targeting," said De Klerk.
0 comments:
Posting Komentar