Producers in Brazil's largest soya producing state, Mato Grosso, are days away from beginning the harvest of record corn and soya crops, while tenacious dry weather elsewhere in Brazil's grain belt threaten to hurt yields.
Rainfall patterns this season are exhibiting how a typical La Nina phenomena affects Brazil's grain belt: Moisture in the southern states such as Rio Grande do Sul falls below average, while tending toward above average further to the north in the centre-west states such as Mato Grosso.The vast high savanna state of Mato Grosso is Brazil's leading Soyabean and cotton producer and is the heart of centre-west grain production.
It has also become one of the largest corn producers in recent years.
The state's Farm Economics Institute (Imea) expects Mato Grosso to yield record harvests in all three crops this year.
Soyabean production should reach a whopping 22.2 million tonnes in the state, with early harvest beginning in the coming days.
That's up from last year's record 20.5 million tonnes, due to increased planted area and despite slightly lower overall expected yields this season, Imea said.
If confirmed, the state would account for roughly 30 percent of the 75-million-tonne soya output expected for all of Brazil, the No 2 producer of the world's most important source of protein.
It is expected to become the No 1 exporter of soyabeans this season by the US Department of Agriculture.
"In central Brazil, it has been a rainy week.
Ideal conditions," said agricultural consultant Kory Melby based in the centre-west state of Goias.
"Contacts in Mato Grosso say they will have some early soyabeans ready after Christmas." He added that the main push of the harvest in Mato Grosso and No 2 Soyabean state Parana in the south would start in early January.
Even parts of south-central Mato Grosso have not been impervious to the dry weather disrupting parts of Brazil's normal spring weather patterns this year.
"We are having problems with lack of rain in the south and south-west of Mato Grosso, in the area of Rondonopolis," Otavio Celidonio, superintendent for Imea said.
"There drought was strong enough to force some producers to replant." He added, however, that rains were favourable to yields in the centre-north of the state, a region that accounts for about 40 percent of the state's crop.
Imea expects soya yields in Mato Grosso to fall this season to 3.174 tonnes a hectare from the record 3.208 tonnes per hectare last season.
Celidonio said output should rise annually in the state because of the expansion in planted area to nearly 7 million hectares from 6.4 million the year before.
Celidonio said the recent relaxing of global grain prices was not likely to affect the planting intentions and output of corn and cotton from Mato Grosso this season.
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