RTRS - China soy stocks to fall 20 pct amid low Q1 imports -thinktank
Posted by Labels: Trader's highlightBEIJING, Feb 1 (Reuters) - Soy stocks at major ports in China, the world's largest buyer of the grain, may fall about a fifth by the end of March on expectations of lower imports and high production by crushers, an official think-tank said on Friday.
"Crushers along coastal areas are running at a high rate since mid-December on robust seasonal demand for soyoil and soymeal," the China National Grain and Oils Information Centre said on its web site ((www.grain.gov.cn)).
"With expected lower imports of soybeans in coming months, soy stocks at ports will start to decline."
China's soy stocks may fall to about 4 million tonnes by the end of March from roughly 5 million now, the think tank said. This figure is well below the figure of 6.2 million a year ago.
The centre also estimated China's soy imports in the first quarter of 2013 at about 11.6 million tonnes, 13 percent lower than 13.26 million in the first quarter of 2012.
Traders told Reuters that some crushers had cancelled expensive U.S. soy shipments in December in favour of supplies at ports, which were offered at a discounted price, dragging down stocks.
"Although the number is put at 5 million tonnes, lots of the stocks have been booked by those crushers which cancelled their U.S. shipments," said one trading manager with an international trading house.
Port congestion in Brazil, the second largest exporter, may delay shipment and lower imports for the first quarter are expected, the centre said. Earlier, traders told Reuters that China might shift to book more cargoes from the United States to make up for the shortfall during this period.
Most Chinese crushers will shut down operation in coming weeks due to holidays for the Lunar New Year, which falls on Feb 10 this year.
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